Young Children Not in School: Steady National Figure Masks Big Changes in the States

Going all the way back to 2007–2009 and con­tin­u­ing through 2015–2017, the three-year aver­age share of 3- and 4‑year-olds not in school had been either 52% or 53%, with the actu­al num­ber of chil­dren hov­er­ing between 4,223,000 and 4,421,000.

From a nation­al per­spec­tive, it’s one of the most sta­ble indi­ca­tors of children’s well-being that can be found on the KIDS COUNT Data Cen­ter. But at a more local lev­el, it’s a sto­ry of remark­able and — in some places — trou­bling trends, with the per­cent­ages of young chil­dren in school ris­ing sig­nif­i­cant­ly in some states and falling quick­ly in oth­ers over the past decade or so.

Tak­ing a clos­er look at these data is impor­tant. Attend­ing prekinder­garten can help ensure kids are ready for school, with the high­est-risk chil­dren accru­ing the great­est gains.

The Dis­trict of Colum­bia had the small­est per­cent­age of young chil­dren not in school: just 25% of 3- and 4‑year-olds were not enrolled, per the most recent avail­able data. Con­necti­cut (35%), New Jer­sey (36%) and Puer­to Rico (37%) followed.

The data across time tell dif­fer­ent sto­ries. Puer­to Rico’s share has fall­en from a recent high of 46% (2008–2010); Connecticut’s and New Jersey’s num­bers remained rel­a­tive­ly steady through­out the decade; and the Dis­trict of Columbia’s fig­ure fell from 33% (2007–2009) to 19% before ris­ing to 25%.

The sta­tis­ti­cal tra­jec­to­ries of states with high per­cent­ages of young chil­dren not in school are sim­i­lar­ly dis­tinct. North Dakota’s 2015–2017 rate of 69% — a nation­al high — was close to its 2007–2009 rate of 67%. But Arizona’s rate of 61% in 2015–2017 — though high — rep­re­sents a nose­dive from 67% in 2008–2010. Neva­da also saw its rate drop over time — from 70% in 2007–2009 to 63% in 2015–2017. Trend­ing in the oth­er direc­tion: Hawaii had a 2015–2017 fig­ure of 54%, reflect­ing a sig­nif­i­cant jump from 45% in 2007–2009. And in Ken­tucky, the share of 3- and 4‑year-olds not in school rose from 54% to 59% over the same time frame.